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Hello this is Matt on the moon Lambo Channel a popular xrp analyst insists That xrp is in Bull territory right now This very second even though it hasn't Ripped to the upside yet and and frankly Unless you think altcoins in general Aren't going to go on a rampage sooner Than later you'll probably agree this Analyst is making at least I'd say Really fair and reasonable point about Where xrp is in the market cycle and It's f fascinating to see that this is Against the backdrop of people in recent Days uh entering for some people actual Despair now I don't know that that's Most of the market participants at this Point in fact I don't think that is the Case but you can see there's an absolute Notable big like truly big dip in terms Of uh the market sentiment here and I'll Show you more on that in a second here But just consider this at the outset you Know in terms of like the big players Distributing Distributing into the Market uh if you're taking a look at People who have held Bitcoin for a long Period of time uh there's a very popular Macro analyst who says those particular Speculators or holders whatever you want To call them they're actually not Selling their Bitcoin even when when Bitcoin popped up to you know around $49,000 uh they weren't selling and There's to this point no indication that
They're going to be selling anytime soon Even with number go down at least in the Short term here um so anyway plenty to To share with you in this video but Before going further I do want to be Clear I do not have a financial Background of any kind I am not offering Financial advice and you definitely Should not buy or sell anything because Of anything I say or right I'm just an Enthusiast who enjoy making YouTube Videos about crypto related topics but Just as a hobby and just for fun uh Worth noting at least over the last few Days or so xrp's been holding up a bit Better than Bitcoin uh xrp at 58 cents Bitcoin down to $ 42,72336 market cap for the asset class 1.69 trillion but take a look at this One crypto fear and greed index 52 out Of 100 folks uh Market participants here Are no longer in greed they are neutral At this point you drop a little bit Lower you're going to be back into fear If that happens which which it could but Just imagine a week ago we were at 71 Out of 100 which was greed and we even Got into extreme Greed for one day and Here we are now neutral it's it's just It's so funny how quickly things change Can you imagine living the life of the Typical liming retail Speculator by You're just flying by the cedar pants
Whatever the price is doing that day I'm Going to feel emotions Associated Whatever that price directionally is Doing oh my God that is no way to live That's not how this works either we're Right and the asset class gets way Bigger and a lot of these large caps Have some sort of future uh or we're Wrong in all it goes to zero what is Your conviction and so like that's why For me having broad exposure to the Asset class and not again not with a Bunch of small cap coins and micro caps Just having exposure to the asset class With large and some midcap coins just Over the long call I have extreme Confidence in that and the cool thing is Even if most of the coins I hold don't Really make it and they go to zero Because I hold about 30 different coins All I need is a few to really take off In a meaningful way over the span of X Number of years however long you end up Holding them and then it's fine that That's what it's that's what it's like And so I kind of built my own little uh You know crypto Index Fund effectively And there was this post from my fellow Xrp YouTuber the bearable Bull and he Wrote as the price crashes during the ETF approval remember those who told you It had happen long-term bullish on 2024 Okay so that resonated with me and That's why I wanted to share it with you
In this video spot on right there and Admittedly you know fair enough I was Calling for a sell the news event that That that was my for fund prediction uh We didn't get that but we sure as hell Didn't get a buy the news event we did Not get a buy the news event and we've Been slipping to the downside and so if I had to make a second guess before this All happened I suppose that if he asked Me well okay let's say it's not a sell The news event Matt would you suppose That the price still goes down to some Degree or or it's a buy the news event I Would still say price go Down why wouldn't it it's like in History when you see these types of Things and people are buying into this Narrative and invariably the most likely Outcome is that people are going to sell When you get to that point and so fine It wasn't some massive selloff but uh Price has gone down now I don't pretend To know if we're going to if we're Bottoming out right here although I Going to share with you perspective from An analyst that thinks that we actually Are but I'll just say this even if we do Go lower into the 30 something, range From this point I will not be scared it Doesn't matter this is normal you if You're in crypto you have to know that This is the most vola asset class on the Entire planet you have to know based on
Historic precedent going back 15 years Now it's normal even during bull cycles To have pullbacks of over 30% you should Expect that and then if you know that's Logically the case that you should Expect that to occur if you're going to Have exposure over a long period of time Then you can also logically come to the Conclusion that it doesn't make sense to Let the feel fills to let the emotions Get the best of you so if you want to Sell sell if you want to buy buy I don't Care I'm not I'm not advising that I'm Just noting here's what the market has Done and it would be weird if this is The point where the market stops doing What the market has done for 15 years Fair right I think that's pretty fair And the beable bull uh actually noted Here when asked you know how far do you Think it goes down he said $3 to $35,000 and he could be right you know I Don't get into the game of of uh you Know making predictions about where the Price is going to go other than Directionally over the long ha my bet is That xrp and the asset class on the Whole ripping to the upside over the Long ha and and that's the great thing About being someone like who is not an Analyst I don't have to make those Predictions all I have to do is sit here And do nothing after I buy that's it It's an awesome investment strategy so
Far as I'm concerned it's the very best Uh here we had a post from credible Crypto and this is from uh last night uh 8:19 p.m. if anyone's curious at the Time I'm recording it is 3:14 a.m. uh January 15th this is Monday uh 2024 and uh so just a little bit ago 8:19 p.m. Last night credible crypto wrote The Following because mind you again like The price of Bitcoin has gone down I Mean you're you're looking at over the Last s days 2.9% but if you look it from Where the high is obviously the Percentage is a bit higher than that I Didn't crunch the numbers before Recording the video but obviously if You're talking about you know hitting a High um you know it was it peaked I Understand on the day didn't Peak out at 49,000 like as far as a close but it did Hit about $49,000 so if you're talking About going from that to the current Price level of 42755 bucks yeah I I understand that You're going to see that there are Certain Market participants who just are Going to get a little spooked by this But uh you know you have a weekly candle That's not looking so hot is that the End of the world well here's what Credible crypto has to say seeing a lot Of comments on how bad this most recent Weekly candle looks so felt it was a
Good time to retweet the Tweet below our Last two weekly candles that looked like This both preceded a appreciated fullon Reversals this isn't to say that the Weekly candle doesn't look bad it does But looks can be deceiving and context Matters using a single candle alone to Form your bias is not the way and he Shared a post from September 1st 2023 Where he was sharing the same concept And here it is it's just bitcoin price Chart from that time period just a few Months ago and he wrote The Following Sharing the same concept because again Scary weekly candle then what happened Blazes to the upside ultimately and so Here's what he wrote on September 1st I Know it looks bad but it looked bad at $115,000 too after our bearish weekly Candle at $155,000 we only drifted about 2.5% Lower before finding our bottom looks Can be deceiving which is why you can't Base your bias off of how things look a Breakin Market structure at $24,800 is the first indication that a Potential Trend shift may be occurring Until then it might look bad but it Really isn't Bitcoin so just take it for What it's worth it doesn't mean for sure It can't keep going to the downside uh And nobody knows for sure but you're We're talking about analysis in like This it's about probability of
Outcome and then there's this from xrp Chart analyst dark Defender here we have An xrp price chart in United States Dollars and and he wrote The Following So this is what I was referencing at the Outset of the video uh and I find this To be perfectly reasonable all all but Basically what he's doing is he taking a Look at how long has xrp been in Bear Territory historically how long has it Been in Bull territory what might be Likely if history is more or less to Repeat or kind of rhyme with itself That's that's basically the concept here And so I find this to be perfectly Reasonable and so he wrote The Following P all the parabolic Stop and Reverse indicator in the monthly time Frame tell us we are in a bullish cycle Based on xrp history Cycles since 2014 And then he lists it out and it's as Follows 30 months of bearish cycle 20 Months of bullish cycle 29 months of Bearish cycle 13 months of bullish cycle 19 months of bearish cycle and then he Notes sixth cycle we are in is bullish For six months considering the minimum Bullish cycle of 13 months and a maximum Of 20 months we can expect at least the Average of you know so 13 plus 20 Divided 2 which equals of course 16 and 1 12 months since we are at the sixth we Could expect 10 more months for xrp to Stay bullish the chart intersection
Indicates the wedge will be eliminated On or before May 2024 and so Look I don't pretend to know exactly how Long things are going to go and when it Comes to timing markets it I think it's It's impossible but he he's just talking About based on historic precedent might It be somewhere in this realm and so That's why I would say you know when it Comes to this idea of xrp where it's at In the market cycle well even if it Hasn't melted faces yet it's in Bull Mode right I mean no matter what you say Unless you think that we're not going to Have new highs and then I'd be with you If if if if the thesis is we're not Going to have new highs just across the Board okay but if we Are yeah this makes all the sense in the World why would xrp not participate in That that's silly as far as I'm Concerned and I know there's no Guarantee and investing is risky I could Be wrong and I could just lose Everything and xrp goes to zero I just Don't think that is the most probable Outcome for a ton of reasons I've been Highlighting on this channel for Literally over half a decade so we'll See what happens here and consider this Too like I understand some people are Going to feel a little bit more scared Now that you know number hasn't been Going up lately and uh the ETF news
Didn't pan out as many liming retail Market speculators thought that it would There there was no by the news event uh Even so uh Lyn Alden who is wellknown in The world of crypto and uh she is sharp As attack let me tell you this uh her Perspective is that Uh over the uh you know I don't know What do you want to call like the Midterm number go up and it has to do in Part with as far as what's covered in This particular article on your scpt Screen here has to do with the idea that Long-term holders just aren't Selling like even after what's happened With the ETF stuff yeah there's been a Sell off to some degree but long-term Holders aren't selling and so is there Going to be a crash at this point I Don't pretend to know uh but but like I Said even if look these pullbacks are Normal so we get this headline from the Daily hotle Bitcoin in very early Innings of structural bull run as Bitcoin showing no signs of distribution Says Lynn Alden back mro economics Guru Lynn Alden believes that the ongoing Bull market Bitcoin bull market is still Intact as long-term holders refuse to Sell even after bitcoin's year-long Rally in a new interview on crypto Influencer Natalie brell's YouTube Channel Alden says that Bitcoin is in The very early stages of its structural
Bull run the macro Guru highlights that She's still not seeing signs that Long-term Bitcoin holders are selling Their coins even though Bitcoin is up About 60% in the last 12 months and so my Friends obviously there have been people Selling so you could call that a Distribution because by definition that Certainly makes sense but if you're Talking about the long-term holders here As far as she's concerned it's just not Happening at least not now and so if the Number goes lower now they're going to Be enticed to sell after seeing it run Up that high and then back and then They're going to she doesn't think so so Here's the quote from her so far we've Not really seen any sign of distribution So when Bitcoin goes through major bull Runs normally some of those older Holders start to sell into that market Strength maybe they want to rebalance Maybe they want to consume so you see Some of that distribution as new buyers Come in and that process hasn't even Started yet based on any sort of onchain Analysis you look at I still think we're Very early in this structural bull run But I do think it's important not to Take a bull run for granted it's not Necessarily owed to you just because the Having is happening or just because it's On that cycle I think it's probably
Still likely over the next 2 years but It is important to manage your Expectations and risk accordingly end Quote which which sounds perfectly Reasonable again nobody knows it's just One more person's opinion um but it it's Just admittedly like if this is the Point where where the market runs admitt It's a bit weird because it hasn't been A full four years since we were in this Position last so it's a bit peculiar uh But that's also why you know CH and is Credible crypto he says well no this Does make sense and he's had this thesis Literally for years like this is Actually what he was expecting to happen Years ago so that's why I'm very curious To see if he ends up being right but he Was basically saying it's it's more like A super cycle and that we're just seeing Longer Cycles in in Bitcoins in Bitcoin Than we had seen in the past it's just Part of the mat maturation process Basically so if it's just an extended Cycle that actually started back in you Know 2018 or whatever uh to him that Makes sense and so it'll be interesting To see what what's happening but he Thinks that's what the explanation is For this and so here you have according To Lyn Alden uh we're not really seeing Any distribution from the long-term Holders well that's that's fantastic Because I'll tell you this you know the
The market cycle where I I jumped in in 2017 by the time we got to uh the Alltime high for Bitcoin at the time Close to $20,000 let me tell you the Long-term holders they were getting out And the onchain data shows that we are Not seeing that here this this this part Does look different as far as what that Means we're all going to find out Together I'm just glad I'm not in the Prediction game because you know I just I don't need that grief I do not need That grief I I have fun running this Channel and hanging out with you guys And sharing perspective and just Thoughts and uh shooting the s word all That crap uh but yeah I'm glad I'm not In the prediction game so we're going to Find out together here but I I'll just Say this It just doesn't make logical sense to me To be fearful just because Market Doesn't go straight up it's never going To what we're seeing right now is what Bitcoin and crypto Market broadly Speaking has been doing for 15 freaking Years and it continues to do that and You get hit in the emotions because it's Doing what it's been doing for 15 years Does that actually make logical sense to You to me no but I do understand since We're humans and not actual robots I Understand why it's an emotional gut Punch when you see your net worth go
Down and then you start to question oh Did I do something wrong and oh my God If I just invested and downs down 30% my God what have I done I understand it That's what humans do but then look at The data what does the market do what Has it done for 15 years it beats people The hell up that's exactly what it Does and So eventually when you just let That sink in one day you can just kind Of Let It Go which is why I sleep easy Every single night and I have a fun fun Fun time hanging out in the space and And not timing I'll tell you this though If I were getting in out of positions And thinking that I'm smarter than Everybody else and I can time markets I Would I don't I would be stressed out of My freaking mind putting money at risk Constantly Traders lose money almost all Of them studies show upwards of 90% no I ain't playing that game and I Think the rest that do make money I'm Not even convinced they make a lot of Money so now kudos to the ones who Actually are good at it I I do respect You know that skill but do I want that Stress in my life hell no I don't want That stress in my life so I sure as hell I'm not going to be getting in and out Of positions knowing that I don't even Have that skill set because I haven't Even attempted to develop it yet people Do this on a daily basis it's so much
Easier to just buy and hold for years And years and years because people also Have trouble not selling but I'm telling You what's even harder is timing the Market that's even harder than not Selling let me tell you That I'm not a financial adviser you Should not buy your sell anything Because of anything I say or right that Would be a very very very bad idea until Next time to the Moon Lambo
