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Welcome back to the show everybody we're Going to look at a probability model That shows us the SEC versus Ripple and All the outcomes 80 percent chance that Xrp holders could be locked out of Retail buying of xrp oh we got that and So much more to discuss somebody rolled That beautiful intro Digital perspectives with Brad kimes Come on in Welcome back to the show everybody you Can follow us on Tick Tock YouTube and Twitter for exclusive content right now It's 1.13 trillion dollar market cap for Cryptocurrency good morning we're up 1.5 On the market this morning Bitcoin 23 400 plus ethereum 1679 and change tether Market cap is 68 billion slightly over They say 41 cents for xrp which is going To prove to be a very important price Point to watch before we get out of here Ladies and Gentlemen let's take a look At this right here Ray Fuentes from link To baby where you can get private Equity Like Ripple uphold poly sign Samba Nova When they get it because that's Artificial intelligence just like the Chat GPT come on in I know you all love It take a listen to this however Minimum's at five thousand dollars Whether you're a first-time investor or A season linked to member Now's the Time To capitalize on this opportunity and Why stop there you can even invest in
Link to it self the company Revolutionizing the private equities Market and providing accredited Investors with access to private Investing this weekend take control of Your investments in the private Market With link to our platform prioritizes Privacy while maintaining usability and Intuitive features learn more and invest In link to today by visiting our website Or downloading our app or clicking that Link right underneath this video because I'm going to tell you right now we're Going to look at the probability of the SEC versus Ripple and let's think of This while we're going over this Information today how much longer are we Going to have to get something like Private Equity of Ripple Yeah we know that the ruling of the case Is supposed to be done in a few months Here What does that mean for ripple once they Get an outcome Brad garlinghouse has Told us that they want to go public So the wind is closing on the Opportunity to get that stuff so make Sure you check that out now let's take a Look at this and start right here We know that Congress has been pounding The ground since we've seen a power Shift From the left side of the aisle to the Right side of the aisle now
Representative bill hazinga says here Let's not kid ourselves in talking about The SEC and Gary gunzler's approach here He says let's not kid ourselves you Can't dial something back that is Unworkable The financial committee oversight Subcommittee will hold Gary Gensler Accountable he says we are just Beginning to peel back the layers of his Flawed rule-making process save your Documents he says Well John Deaton who I used to refer to As the field general of 76 000 xrp Holders but it's much bigger than that Isn't it His role has grown into Representing the entire crypto space to Be perfectly honest and I'm grateful He's here He says I would respectfully suggest Issuing a subpoena to FTX SPF Etc regarding their correspondence in Multiple meetings with the SEC and Gary Gensler and I would like to add to John Deaton's point that if the right side of The aisle doesn't do that then it's all About political posturing and they're Not interested in solving anything Subpoenas ladies and gentlemen there's Your key if they don't exercise every Bit of power to get to the bottom of What we all know has gone on they're Really not interested in solving it now
Are they Let's look at this from ISO 20022 let's Do it Shows us here and if you want to see the Full link he has it here for everyone to See as well Target consolidation project We're just going to take a quick look Here the migration we're looking at here And you can see March 17 2023 March 17 2023 we do know however that this is a Coexisting phase over the next 24 months Transitioning all of the financial Institutions that use Swift and the iso 20022 new standardization in order to Collect Rich data For value and payments moving in Settlement right we also noted as a Separate note that this also through This standardization will allow the use Of coding of new assets like stable Coins cbdcs maybe even other digital Assets as well like xrp xlm who knows But that is the Curiosity that is the Enthusiasm behind all of this is to Watch how all of this opens up once that Standardization takes place we'll keep Following it March is coming Stably shares this and if you remember Stably is going to launch a stable coin Off of The xrp Ledger and by the way Stably Is building that stable coin using Corium Come on in shout out to Bob Ross and
Everybody over there However they shared here the Euro e are You ready for a fully reserved EU Regulated option in D5 this is membrane Finance which is really tied in off of The uh ethereum Network here but it's Moving towards this regulated level of Stable coin issuance here things are Starting to really fire up I do believe That this is the year Of stable coin legislation unless I'm Overly optimistic here I do believe that This is the year that we see a lot of Growth and announcements with cbdc's Globally around the world and as Ripple Has said it this should be the year of Seeing Global Pilots take place which Means multiple cbdc's involved with one Another so there's the article there I Don't have to read it to you but here we Want to get into this Shout out to Jeremy Hogan and shout out To Joshua barbin here Who happens to be a financial advisor And he tries to take a very pragmatic Approach here to assessing what is going On with xrp and certainly the SEC versus Ripple case I absolutely love the way he Breaks this down and we're going to take A look at this Jeremy Hogan says here Very interesting article by Joshua Putting a framework to the possible Outcomes for xrp related to the SEC Lawsuit let's take a look at this
Because this is quite interesting here And if we get into this where I want to Start with this he says as a fiduciary Who advises clients about their xrp Holders he absolutely is a fiduciary He says here I often think to this think Of this mental road map often we make These conditional probability models in Our heads but the problem is if we never Put these models to paper they are Largely driven by emotion and Irrationality he says here for example My personal decision to begin my Investment journey into Ripple shares Was a simple mental equation after Listening to an old legal Breeze video In March 2021 After watching the video in my mind I Said if Ripple can win or settle the Lawsuit the price of xrp will most Likely go up from where it is today He says this is a simple version of Conditional probability next thing I did Was calculate my odds of them winning or Settling and then my odds of the price Going up if they did I had now developed a rough mental model That gave me enough conviction to assume My odds were good enough to take the Risk with the probability of expected Outcome He says over the last two years since The initial investment I have learned Significantly more information about the
Case unfortunately the best analysis is Still a crude version of this original Mental exercise however I hashed out the Thinking with a lot more detail about Expected results to the case and this Has resulted in my current probability Model for the Ripple versus sec Conditional probability model I should Say and what he does here is pretty Remarkable the way he lays this out if You take a look at the big picture here If the case settles he believes that's a 70 percent probability Verses the 30 probability that the case Goes to trial However if the case were to go to trial He believes it's a 33 chance that Ripple Wins on summary judgment but however a 66 chance that the SEC wins on summary Judgment And what's interesting here is that if If Ripple were the win in that 33 Percent chance that he's decided to give To that He says he believes that that would be a Hundred percent if the Ripple were to Win in summary judgment going to trial That xrp never was a security Now that's interesting that's a hundred Percent outcome if Ripple wins summary Judgment However if you go to the 66 percent he's Put on the SEC winning the summary Judgment he does that because we know
The SEC has not lost a case against a Digital asset project To this point And if they win at summary judgment You're looking at a 80 percent chance That secondary market sales are not a Security but 20 percent asset deemed Unregistered security outright Now if that were to happen it's a 70 Percent chance you have a free-fall in Price like you saw with Tara and ftt Right Or a 30 chance that you could see the Buyback scenario which gets discussed Which I would imagine actually would Come from Ripple and not some other Entity However if we go back to here if the Secondary market sales are not a Security and the SEC has won its summary Judgment He puts a 70 percent chance that Ripple Would relocate and still use xrp but a 30 chance that Ripple would abandon The Xrp Ledger dissolve and create a new Token Now let's go up here to where the case Settles He puts a 70 chance on the case settling Which is why I saved that for last and Worked through the other probability Model part of that model A 70 percent chance at this likelihood That this case settles now that's quite
Interesting Now we know that James K feilin has said To us hey he believes that this case Settles with one giant ruling on or Before March 2023. We've also heard it could go as far as Into May right We literally could be days or weeks away From this 70 chance of conditional Probability outcome Think of that But look at this if the case Settles if The case settles which is a 70 percent Conditional probability here in his Model Then he puts a 80 percent chance that The future sales to qualified purchasers Which sounds a lot to me like what we Have talked about here will retail xrp Holders be able to continue to buy sell And hold this asset the way they were Before this case came about And a 20 chance that no future sales and Relocate Now out of it now obviously this is his Conditional probability model now I know He's a financial advisor but I'm not Saying this is financial advice I think This is an excellent thought exercise And let's look at this for a second here Before we wrap up here because he this Is just a remarkable out the way he Breaks this out If you look at these final columns here
This is really important here if you Look at this conditional probability if You look at each scenario he puts a Percentage ratio in what he believes is The strength of that happening here so Free fall and price if that were to go Really wrong here is a three percent Chance buyback scenario one percent Chance that would more than likely I Would imagine be from Ripple not another Entity 11 chance of Ripple leeco uh relocates And still uses xrp Five percent probability he puts on Ripple abandon's a ledger and dissolves A new token xrp never secured a 10 Chance 14 chance that no future sales uh U.S sales and then relocates uh for Ripple and a 50 conditional probability Based on the fact that what we've been Saying here on this channel is that it's A good chance that this moves to Accredited qualified purchasers and Takes retail out of the ability to get It which would lean into the Understanding that why Ripple buys xrp Off the secondary Market And redirects it to on-demand liquidity And that could cause the Shane Ellis Theory to dry up whatever liquidity is Floating around on the exchanges if it Should go that way I would imagine He says here Is most important as this column
Expresses his overall probabilities that We just went over here he says in an Expected outcome based on inputs from Previous odds as you can see my expected Odds of getting a blue outcome which by The way the blue is positive for ripple Right The blue boxes are positive outcomes for Both Ripple and xrp the orange boxes are Good for xrp acceptable for ripple black Boxes are generally negative scenarios Overall for both Ripple and xrp so That's the color code there right but Coming here he says here Looking at this as you can see is Expected odds of getting a blue outcome Are roughly 66 percent or two out of Three scenarios my expected odds of Getting an orange scenario are 25 which Is one out of four scenarios my expected Odds of getting a black scenario are Nine percent or roughly one out of ten Scenarios overall My expected odds that xrp holders get a Good acceptable outcome is roughly 90 Percent Tasked with the responsibility of Providing Financial fiduciary advice and Requirements to meet a prudent person Standard I would say that those are fair Enough odds to recommend to someone to Take a position in xrp or someone who Has a position xrp to hold that position However
He must hedge this sentiment with the Reality that having a 10 odds uh Potentially the completely loss of a Principal invested is a reason to be Extremely cautious and listen what he Says here When you frame this position like this It's much easier to understand where Your risk is really at and how you may Feel about it or not It's an issue of framing if I say 90 Odds xrp holders get a favorable outcome That feels pretty comfortable however if I say 10 odds that you could never Retire or 10 odds that you start at Literal Ground Zero or ten percent odds That you will have to declare bankruptcy The situation becomes more sobering now Doesn't it I have to tell you that this is Remarkable Shout out to Joshua for this article and Writing it up Joshua Barbara give him a Follow I really like that analysis and That overview not Financial advice for Him me or anyone else but look at this Here's what the charts are saying to egg Rag crypto here falling wedges are Considerably bullish and failure rate is Somehow low it can present as both Continuation on the downside is to 22 Cents is in play However a reversal pattern would put a Dollar forty in play and who's got a
Problem with that not this guy I'm here For it 22 cents dollar 40 100 bucks Thousand bucks eight million I don't Know but what I do know is is I made a Decision a long time ago to be here Until this plane comes in for Landon and That's exactly what I'm going to do And that's going to do it for me not Financial advice for me or anyone else It's just my digital perspectives I'll Catch all
